Barack Obama swept the “Potomac Primary” (a.k.a. the “Chesapeake Primary”, the “Beltway Primary” or the “Crabcake Primary”, or, as Jon Stewart called it, the “Virginia is for Primary Lovers Primary”), taking the Commonwealth of Virginia (63%-36%), the District of Columbia (76%-24%) and the State of Maryland (48%-41%).
This series of wins comes straight on the heels of his weekend sweep of Maine, Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington State and the US Virgin Islands. The Obama momentum machine is in full swing.
But, as I mentioned last week, this still may come down to Texas and Ohio. It’s hard to imagine that Obama will take Texas away from Hillary—she has strong support in the Latino community, which, obviously is very important to the Lone Star State (indeed, she’s even in El Paso today). The Rio Grande Valley loves them some Clinton, and Obama will have to gut Hillary in all other classes of Democrats—the affluent white latte liberals in Dallas and Houston, the granola whites in Austin, the African American communities in Dallas and Houston.
Although, it should be mentioned that Obama won Virginia’s Latinos by a margin of 55% to 45%. Granted, Virginia is not Texas, and Latinos in Virginia are mostly from South America, not Mexico, like in Texas, but it’s worth noting that he is cutting into her territory, so to speak.
But, as we’ve seen in this race, things like gender and race are not what you’d think. (You’d think that Obama would do well in Ohio, where there is a higher percentage of African Americans, but we’ll see.)
I have to think that there are three scenarios that likely could play out by 4 March, when Ohio and Texas go to the polls (assume Obama wins Wisconsin next Tuesday, as expected, ignore Rhode Island and Vermont, and pay attention to my two home states, all of this with the full-disclosure disclaimer that I have already voted for Obama in Texas):
- Obama wins Texas and Ohio. A deal is brokered with Hillary and the race is over.
- Hillary wins Texas and Obama wins Ohio. We’ve still got a ballgame. It depends on the margin in Texas, which has the money load of delegates (228 to Ohio’s 161), but neither candidate gives up.
- Hillary sweeps Texas and Ohio. Both stay in the race and we’ve got big-time delegate whoring coming up, especially superdelegate whoring, with Pennsylvania’s 188 delegates looking tasty.
I don’t think that Obama would win Texas and not Ohio. I could be completely wrong, but that’s how I see it.
Obama’s rallying supporters in Madison now, and is already turning the fight to John McCain, who swept the Potomac Pachyderm Primary. Smart move.
8 comments:
Wow, just discovered your blog via a comment on DKos.
As a Sydneysider with a quite unhealthy obsession with US politics (and yes, an Obama admirer) your page got me interested right away.
And you're a tennis and Arsenal fan? You're kidding me?
I'm a bit older than a Gen X'er so I'm not hitting on your or anything but just wanted to say I'm so pleased I found your blog.
btw, I'm sports journalist, but apart from basketball I'll admit I'm a bit sketchy on American sport.
Oh yeah, and I forgot to add the other thing that really blew me away was the fact you'd just been to Seoul.
I was in Seoul last March.
Around the same time you were in Seoul last month, my Korean friend (who I was visiting when I flew to Seoul last year) was in Sydney.
mmmm...good post.
one thing that helps us in texas is we have a caucus after the primary that gives 1/3 of the delegates. i really doubt hilary's people will come out to the caucuses...but obama's are already organising for them. i am getting trained this weekend to be our precinct organizer! i'll carry the eddie-torch for you since you're missing out. :)
Well... if it's any consolation...
THIS conservative girl from Texas will be voting for Obama in the Texas primary.
The Republicans have crapped in my nest. It's a protest vote... I refuse to vote for McCain or Huckleberry.
And I just can't stand the thought of Hillary and Bill in the White House again.
"Erase all doubt... keep her out."
Obama has my vote.
Don't tell Grandma.
So how do you feel about Super Delegates?
We don't have them on the Repub side, thankfully... I think I'd be ticked off if I voted and then the whole race was decided by a select few.
Seems like Billary's plan to get coronated backfired.
The Superdelegate thing is a bit weird. I'm not sure I really like it - too much power in an elite few. (This is democracy?)
Frankly, I think the whole primary process needs a re-vamp. Especially as I live outside the US and see other democracies that don't in any way actually vote for their leaders, it's weird that we don't really do it, either.
But anyway you may see the Clinton SDs defecting, indeed some (like Congressman Lewis) already have.
Couple the Superdelegate thing with the fact that it's not winner-take-all in delegates anymore, and it makes for an interesting race. (E.g., yeah, HRC won California, but Obama got nearly as many delegates there anyway, and even if she wins Texas we may have the same thing.)
yeah. that is weird. and i'm sure if she doesn't get all that she wants from the superdelegates, she's going to fight for Florida and Michigan... which will not make her look good at all, considering Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan because *he* followed the rules.
she's just not good. she and bill are past their prime.
...and since obama didn't campaign in florida (again, following the rules!) of course clinton would win without him being allowed to show who he qas to the voters. you're right, ladyjane...i think she's realized her two best chances are overturning the will of the people or changing the rules mid-game. time to hang it up i say.
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